有谁知道什么是长尾理论？

　　长尾理论是网络时代兴起的一种新理论，由美国人克里斯·安德森提出。长尾理论认为，由于成本和效率的因素，过去人们只能关注重要的人或重要的事，如果用正态分布曲线来描绘这些人或事，人们只能关注曲线的“头部”，而将处于曲线“尾部”、需要更多的精力和成本才能关注到的大多数人或事忽略。例如，在销售产品时，厂商关注的是少数几个所谓“VIP”客户，“无暇”顾及在人数上居于大多数的普通消费者。而在网络时代，由于关注的成本大大降低，人们有可能以很低的成本关注正态分布曲线的“尾部”，关注“尾部”产生的总体效益甚至会超过“头部”。例如，某著名网站是世界上最大的网络广告商，它没有一个大客户，收入完全来自被其他广告商忽略的中小企业。安德森认为，网络时代是关注“长尾”、发挥“长尾”效益的时代。

　　The long-tail theory is one kind of new theory which the network time emerges, proposed by American Chris · Anderson. The long-tail theory believed that as a result of the cost and the efficiency factor, the people only could pay attention to the important person or the important matter in the past, if described these human or the matter with the normal distribution curve, the people only could pay attention to the curve “the forehead”, but will be in most people who or the matter the curve “the rear part”, need more energy and the cost could pay attention neglects. For example, when sells the product, what manufacturer attention is minority several so-called “VIP” the customer, “has no time” to take into consideration resides in the majority ordinary consumers in the population. But in network time, because pays attention the cost reduces greatly, the people have the possibility by the very low cost attention normal distribution curve “the rear part”, the attention “the rear part” produces the overall benefit will even surpass “the forehead”. For example, some famous website is in the world the biggest network advertising agent, it does not have a big customer, the income to come from the small and medium-sized enterprise which completely is neglected by other advertising agents. Anderson believed that the network time is the attention “the long-tail”, the display “the long-tail” the benefit time.

　　简单的说，所谓 长尾理论 是指，当商品储存流通展示的场地和渠道足够宽广，商品生产成本急剧下降以至于个人都可以进行生产，并且商品的销售成本急剧降低时，几乎任何以前看似需求极低的产品，只要有卖，都会有人买。这些需求和销量不高的产品所占据的共同市场份额，可以和主流产品的市场份额 相比，甚至更大。商业和文化的未来不在于传统需求曲线上那个代表“畅销商品”（hits）的头部； 而是那条代表“冷门商品”（misses）经常为人遗忘的长尾。 举例来说， 一家大型书店通常可摆放10万本书，但亚马逊网络书店的图书销售额中，有四分之一来自排名10万以后的书籍。这些“冷门”书籍的销售比例正以高速成长，预估未来可占整体书市的一半。这意味着消费者在面对无限的选择时，真正想要的东西、和想要取得的渠道都出现了重大的变化，一套崭新的商业模式也跟着崛起。

　　Said simply that the so-called long-tail theory is refers to, when the commodity storage circulation demonstration's location and the channel are broad enough, the commodity production cost drops individual to be possible suddenly to carry on the production, and the commodity selling costs reduce suddenly time, nearly any before looked that resembles the demand extremely low product, so long as has sells, some people will buy. These demands and the sales volume not high product occupy the common market share, may compare with the mainstream product market share, even is bigger. Commercial and the cultural future will not lie in the tradition demand curve that will represent “the goods that are selling well” (hits) the forehead; But is that strip represents “the skill that receives little attention commodity” (misses) frequently the manner forgetting long-tail. For example, a large-scale bookstore usually may place 100,000 books, but in the Amazon Network Bookstore's books sales volume, some 1/4 come from places 100,000 later books. These “the skill that receives little attention” the books sales proportion by the high speed growth, was estimating that in the future may occupy the overall book fair half. This means the consumer when faces the infinite choice, the true wish's thing, and the wish obtains the channel presented the tremendous change, a set of brand-new business model with is also rising.